Surfing the right waves
This analogy works quite well when thinking about trying to choose which early stage technologies an organisation should jump on board with. The basic premise is that it is like being sitting on a surfboard just off the coast waiting for the perfect wave to come so you can ride it to shore. It is very hard to see which waves are going to become the best ones ("narly" I think) to ride but with practice it is a skill that can be learnt. I can't remember where I first read this so I can't quote the original source but here is an article which summarises it quite well.
Link to external webpage